Cautious Momentum: Suppliers Describe a Choppy but Stable Start to 2026
by Michael Collins
At the recent International Builders’ Show (IBS) in Orlando, we asked how each company’s year was starting off and how the owner or executive thought the year would turn out. We queried manufacturers and distributors of doors, windows and a variety of other building products. Some companies reported that they were off to an extremely strong start, but those were outliers. Most of the companies we spoke with reported that the year was off to a similar or slightly better start than 2025.
This is noteworthy, because so many companies lost one to two weeks to snowstorms in parts of the country that don’t normally see much snow. Most companies felt that this year would be about the same as 2025—that’s to say, a choppy and uncertain year with a modest level of sales growth over the prior year. One thing that can be said for a challenging market is that those conditions tend to foster fear and uncertainty in one’s competitors. If fenestration suppliers continue to push and act on the assumption that there is plenty of business to be had out there, creativity and assertiveness can lead to growth and market share increases in a year such as this.
Better Days Ahead
The positive twist that most companies added to their predictions about 2026 was that the second half of the year is expected to be noticeably stronger than the first. Some felt this would be driven by a rate cut following a changing of the guard at the Federal Reserve. Nearly everyone we spoke with thought that a strong second half, combined with softening inflation and other positive economic factors, will set us up for an outstanding 2027.
The annual recognition breakfast for World Vision’s Storehouse Project (www.worldvision.org) was another important element of the trip to IBS. We’ve written about this organization in the past and wanted to remind fenestration suppliers about their good work of matching donated building materials with Americans grappling with poverty and natural disasters. World Vision accepts donations of usable excess stock, returns, discontinued items and similar inventory.
When companies donate their products, the goods are sent directly to a storehouse where they are matched with a family in need, often being installed in just a week. World Vision enjoys a 97% ratio of the value of donated products finding their way into the repair of homes of families in need. All major products used in home construction are needed, but doors and windows are particularly helpful. At the same time, the Storehouse project represents a way to avoid the brand damage of dumping excess products at deep discounts and the environmental damage of landfilling them.
The keynote speaker at the breakfast was Billy Bastek, executive vice president of merchandising for The Home Depot, who presented a cautiously optimistic outlook for the year ahead. Bastek detailed various headwinds, including the fact that 80% of mortgages are locked in below 6%. On the positive side, he pointed to the fact that American homeowners have only $14 trillion in debt on their homes and own $36 trillion of equity. When this pool of capital is tapped using home equity loans and lines of credit, most of such funds are used for home improvement. Also, the underhang of two to five million U.S. homes that need to be built will drive the market over the next five years.
Michael Collins is a partner and managing principal of EquiNova Capital Partners LLC. He specializes in mergers and acquisitions in the door and window industry. mcollins@equinovacapital.com
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