Among the seminars presented during the Win-door show was an economic forecast from Richard Kelly of TD Bank Financial Group. The event was held November 17-19 in Toronto.

According to Kelly, the U.S. recession is over, but the recovery will be gradual. He forecasted that the national GDP would improve 2.4 percent over the course of 2010 and 3.3 percent in 2011. As support of this he pointed to the fact that the housing market is showing signs of life, production is gradually coming back online, retail spending is recording a small bounce-back and job losses are slowing.

The Canadian economy also is at a turning point, Kelly told his audience. He forecasted 2.5 percent growth in Canadian GDP in 2010 and 3.1 percent growth in 2011.

Kelly pointed to three phases in the recovery cycle. In the near term he said output would prove to grow in the second half of 2009. For 2010-2011, he said that liquidity injections and fiscal stimulus will gain traction. Over the long-term he pointed to several challenges that will be faced by the United States and Europe, including: recapitalizing the financial sector; mopping up liquidity; deleveraging; reining in deficits; and global imbalances.

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