Builder Confidence Rises Four Points in December

December 17th, 2013 by DWM Magazine

Builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes improved four points to a 58 reading on the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December. This gain reflected improvement in all three index components—current sales conditions, sales expectations and traffic of prospective buyers.

“The recent spike in mortgage interest rates has not deterred consumers as rates are still near historically low levels,” says NAHB chief economist David Crowe. “Following a two-month pause in the index, this uptick is due in part to release of the pent-up demand caused by the uncertainty generated by the October government shutdown. We continue to look for a gradual improvement in the housing recovery in the year ahead.”

Derived from a monthly survey that NAHB has been conducting for 25 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

All three HMI components posted gains in December. The index gauging current sales conditions jumped six points to 64, while the index gauging expectations for future sales rose two points to 62. The index gauging traffic of prospective buyers gained three points to 44.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South edged one point higher to 57 while the Northeast, Midwest and West each fell a single point to 38, 59 and 59, respectively.

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