Ducker Releases Preliminary Forecast Data at WDMA Meeting

Scott Shober, partner with Ducker Worldwide, released some preliminary data for the annual window and door market study before attendees of the WDMA’s annual meeting. Ducker performs this research, which is commissioned by WDMA and the American Architectural Manufacturers Association.

(He stressed that this is preliminary data and the final data will not be released until April.)

Some of the statistics were no surprise for door and window manufacturers who are all too familiar with the dramatic decline in housing starts.

“2007 marked the worst residential construction slump in decades,” said Shober. “But it was a banner year for non-residential.”

He reported that single-family starts declined 28.6 percent, and projects another steep decline in 2008.

“The outlook is rough for 2008 …. Certainly we are all anxious for 2009 to get here,” he told attendees.

For the residential window market, following is how the individual materials fared in 2007: vinyl—57.7 percent; wood—27.1 percent; aluminum—12 percent; and fiberglass—2 percent.

“There was a little gain on share for wood—a little decline for vinyl,” said Shober, though he added that vinyl has gained slightly on the remodeling side.

Other trends noted: The average home size is leveling off. And on the remodeling side, as a whole the market will double in 2008, but the door and window market won’t fare as well as other remodeling markets, said Shober.

Shober offered some additional preliminary statistics, including:

• In 2007 the patio door market declined 16 percent.
• The interior door market is expected to soften through 2010.
• On the skylights side the downturn is pretty severe. Ducker estimates a 17.1- percent decline for 2007 and a 13-percent decline in 2008.
• In the distribution study, the area of installation services is becoming the new battleground between the big box and the lumberyard. Additionally, lumberyards and specialty retailers are getting growing business from manufacturers.
• While non-residential spending increased by 25 percent versus 2006, Shober reported that this market is starting to peak. Ducker predicts a flat outlook for 2008 while adding that the hospital and educational markets are “spots of light.”

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